Why Politicians Struggle with the Truth

By Matthias Zehnder – March 14, 2025

US Vice President J.D. Vance and the Economy

US Vice President J.D. Vance claims that Joe Biden has led the American economy to ruin. This is a bold statement, as it can be easily fact-checked: the opposite is true. Never in the past 50 years has the economy been in better shape at the start of a new US president’s term. However, this is now changing rapidly, as the US is engaging in economic self-destruction under Donald Trump. But at the time of Biden’s departure, the economy was booming. J.D. Vance is lying. The question is: why? How can a politician lie about something so easily verifiable? The problem is that politics has little to do with truth.

Truth means that a statement corresponds with reality. Politics, however, deals with the future—a possible, desirable, or threatening future world. No true statements can be made about the future because it is not yet reality. Politicians can say whatever they want about the future. The problem arises when the present catches up with the predicted future. This is the litmus test: does politics yield to truth, or does it attempt to bend the truth to fit its politics? The US faces this challenge today, but politicians everywhere are susceptible to it. The truth is, politicians struggle with the truth.

The “Misery Index”

In the US, there is a metric called the “Misery Index,” which expresses the state of a country’s economy in a single number. Created by economist Arthur Okun in the 1960s, it is calculated by adding the inflation rate to the unemployment rate. The best-performing country in this index is Switzerland, with an extremely low unemployment rate and inflation, resulting in a “Misery Index” score of 3.3. At the other end of the scale is Argentina, with high unemployment and enormous inflation, leading to a score of 173—true economic misery. The US, with a score of 6.9, ranks in the upper third, behind Germany but ahead of countries like the UK, Denmark, and Sweden.

Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan, has calculated the US Misery Index for the last 50 years at the time of each new president’s inauguration. The result: never in the past 50 years has the American economy been in such good shape at the beginning of a presidency. Inflation was below 3%, and unemployment was around 4%. Yet, Vice President J.D. Vance claims: “Joe Biden left this economy in a disaster.” The numbers prove otherwise. The “disaster” only began with Donald Trump’s policies, such as his tariff strategies, which sent the S&P 500 into a downward spiral. The verdict is clear: Vance is lying.

Politics and Truth

Exposing a politician’s lie is often futile. Politicians are not necessarily dishonest by nature, but their profession has little to do with truth. Let’s examine this further, starting with the concept of truth itself.

The philosopher Aristotle defined truth in his Metaphysics as follows: “To say of what is that it is, and to say of what is not that it is not.” In other words, a statement is true if it corresponds with reality. Such statements are easy to verify. If someone says, “It is raining,” one can simply look outside to confirm whether it is true or false.

However, the key issue in Aristotle’s definition lies in the word saying: truth is closely tied to language. John Le Carré once said, “Without clear language, there is no standard for truth.” It is no coincidence that the Trump administration has systematically removed certain words from government websites and publications, eliminating everything that does not fit its worldview. When one cannot change reality, one changes language—and thus public perception.

The Politics of Fear

Politicians across the spectrum use fear as a tool. The right warns of malevolent migrants, cultural dilution, and economic disaster due to green policies. The left warns of malicious billionaires, growing economic inequality, and climate catastrophe. These warnings describe a possible future and can never be true—only probable. The goal is to mobilize voters by painting an undesirable future.

Warnings provide three major advantages for politicians:

1. They cannot be fact-checked for truth since they concern the future.
2. If the feared event does not occur, politicians can claim their warning prevented it, a phenomenon known as the prevention paradox in public health.
3. Fear-based messages resonate with voters, even when they know these warnings are speculative. Media organizations exploit this as well: “Only bad news is good news.” Evolutionarily, humans prioritize warnings in their cognitive processing, making them a powerful political tool.

The Confirmation Bias Trap

The problem with fear-based politics is that it shapes perceptions of the present. People selectively perceive, interpret, and remember information that aligns with their existing beliefs, a cognitive bias known as confirmation bias. The darker a politician paints the future, the more their supporters see the present through that grim lens, reinforcing their views.

Even when the predicted disaster does not occur, the mere repetition of dire warnings influences how people view reality. Over time, the distinction between anticipated disaster and present reality blurs. When this happens, politicians must decide: do they accept reality, or do they double down on their worldview?

J.D. Vance and his allies have chosen the latter path. His claim that the economy is in ruins is not just a misrepresentation—it is a deliberate choice to prioritize ideology over facts.

Truth vs. Totalitarianism

Governments can manipulate reality for a time—by suppressing climate research, deleting inconvenient data, or controlling media narratives. But sooner or later, reality asserts itself. Farmers will face droughts. Coastal regions will experience flooding. The economy, above all, reacts swiftly when governmental claims clash with hard data.

As Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign slogan famously declared: “It’s the economy, stupid!” If economic policies fail, reality will outstrip rhetoric. The Spiegel recently asked, “Is Trump ruining the US economy?” While that headline itself may be an example of sensationalist journalism, the underlying question is valid.

In the end, neither moral appeals nor philosophical arguments will hold sway over politicians like J.D. Vance and Donald Trump. The economy’s hard numbers will be their reckoning. Because while language and perception can be manipulated, financial markets and economic stability remain rooted in reality.

Original article by Matthias Zehnder, translated and formatted in Markdown.

Sources

• Arthur Okun: Creator of the “Misery Index” in the 1960s.
• Justin Wolfers: Economic analysis of US presidential transitions.
• Der Spiegel: Economic coverage on Trump’s policies.
• John Le Carré: On the relationship between language and truth.
• J.D. Vance, U.S. Vice President, speaks at the National League of Cities Congress in Washington on March 10, 2025. Image: KEYSTONE/EPA/Will Oliver
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